Saturday, December 13, 2008

The Best Cities for Riding Out a Recession

Where the Jobs Are

Where the Jobs Are

Worried about the future? You're not alone but it doesn't mean you're going to have start loading the family up in a truck and go pick grapes in California like John Steinbeck's Joad family in The Grapes of Wrath. What it does mean, though, is that even in a recession some communities will fare better than others. And it's not necessarily just the rich ones. What will be most important will be to find communities where the local economy will be relatively unscathed. That means that in the near term people who work in critical fields such as health care and education are likely to enjoy greater job security than those who work in sectors such as financial services or construction. That does not mean these communities will be recession-proof, but it does mean they may be hurt less than others. So where are these communities? Read on to find out.

Editor's Note: The job data for each town was provided by Claritas using U.S. Census Bureau employment categories. Towns that had populations of less than 200,000 and unemployment rates of more than 6.1%, such as Bakersfield, Sacramento, Fresno, and San Diego, were not included in the list. The metro area unemployment rate is a preliminary estimate for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Professional, Scientific and Technical Services" includes legal services, accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll. Data for some strong sectors such as energy were not available, or were part of broader categories that included significantly weak sectors. The weak economy is expected to damage all sectors, but the list is meant to highlight places that are buffered by relatively strong industries.

Boston

Share of jobs in strong industries: 42.5%
Number of workers: 263,097
Metro area unemployment rate: 4.5%
Agriculture jobs: 0.10%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical jobs (legal, accounting etc.): 10.49%
Education jobs: 11.11%
Health-care jobs: 15.70%
Public Administration (Government) jobs: 5.13%

Boston's residents work in a variety of resilient industries, including education, health, and law. The Boston area is home to world-class universities with massive endowments, including Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It also has many large hospitals. The city, however, has plenty of finance, retail, and hospitality jobs that could get hit in a downturn.

Philadelphia

Share of jobs in strong industries: 39.8%
Number of workers: 560,390
Metro area unemployment rate: 6.1%
Agriculture jobs: 0.13%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical jobs (legal, accounting etc.): 6.32%
Education jobs: 9.99%
Health-care jobs: 15.99%
Public Administration (Government) jobs: 7.33%

The city has plenty of large hospitals and educational institutions, including the University of Pennsylvania, Jefferson Medical School, and Temple University. It also has a large number of lawyers. Tourism could do fine in a downturn if Northeasterners decide to travel locally and foreigners continue to stream in to take advantage of the weak dollar. But Philadelphia has many stores and restaurants, which might get hit hard in a downturn.

Seattle

Share of jobs in strong industries: 37.6%
Number of workers: 331,186
Metro area unemployment rate: 5%
Agriculture jobs: 0.34%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical jobs (legal, accounting etc.): 12.24%
Education jobs: 10.02%
Health-care jobs: 11.49%
Public Administration (Government) jobs: 3.48%

Seattle was hit by the collapse of Washington Mutual, which was based in Seattle. And technology companies are likely to suffer in the economic downturn. But Seattle, a major port, will continue to benefit from robust international trade as long as the dollar is weak. And its largest employer is the University of Washington. The health-care and biotech sectors are also strong.

District of Columbia

Getty Images

District of Columbia

Share of jobs in strong industries: 46.9%
Number of workers: 265,059
Metro area unemployment rate: 4.3%
Agriculture jobs: 0.08%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical jobs (legal, accounting etc.): 14.02%
Education jobs: 9.35%
Health-care jobs: 8.57%
Public Administration (Government) jobs: 14.92%

Government is the dominant industry in the nation's capital, which fills up each day with lawyers, lobbyists, legislative aides, and journalists. D.C. could feel the impact of shrinking tax revenues in a weakened economy, but the damage likely won't be as severe as it might be in cities dependent on retail, banking, and other industries. The city could also benefit by being home to major educational institutions such as Georgetown University and American University. It's also a major tourist destination and might continue to draw foreign tourists attracted by the weak dollar.

Baltimore

Share of jobs in strong industries: 41.8%
Number of workers: 249,688
Metro area unemployment rate: 4.8%
Agriculture jobs: 0.11%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical jobs (legal, accounting etc.): 5.59%
Education jobs: 11.12%
Health-care jobs: 15.71%
Public Administration (Government) jobs: 9.31%

Baltimore, once a major port and manufacturing center, has developed more sturdy industries such as medicine, law, and health. Major employers include Johns Hopkins University and Johns Hopkins Hospital. The city, however, still struggles with poverty and crime and could face challenges, especially with its financial sector and tourism-related jobs, if the economy continues to worsen.

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/10/1014_recession_cities/1.htm

No comments:

Post a Comment